TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/012290/0122009.000

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                U ⌐)                                                        WORLD, Page 30

SOVIET UNION

And Now, Divorce?


As Lithuanians demand independence, Mikhail Gorbachev
contemplates an empire endangered by the flames of secession

By JILL SMOLOWE -- Reported by Ann Blackman/Moscow, John
Kohan/Vilnius and Strobe Talbott/Washington


    He touched down in Vilnius the dignified statesman,
expecting to rely on his charm and diplomatic skills to work
out a compromise. But when the first cry of Samostoyatelnost!
-- independence -- sounded from the Lithuanian crowd, Mikhail
Gorbachev rapidly abandoned the strategies of genteel diplomacy
and adopted the tactics of a ward politician bent on
maintaining his lock on a balking constituency. "Independence?"
he shouted above the insistent cries. "Let's have it. At the
workplace. In cities. Republics. But together!"

    Wading into crowds, the Soviet President proved himself a
master of street theater, improvising historical, philosophical
and legalistic arguments as he pressed his appeal to
Lithuanians to step back from their threatened breach with
Moscow. When his entreaties met with smiles and shouts of
"Bravo, Gorbachev!" he answered with poignant appeals. "My
personal fate is linked to this choice," he reminded the
crowds. When he read resistance in the faces of his listeners,
he fumed and lectured, employing the Socratic method to grill
his audience.

    At a Vilnius fuel-machinery plant, he spied a sign in
Russian reading not more rights but full independence. "Who
gave you that?" Gorbachev challenged a Lithuanian welder. When
the worker replied that he had made the sign, Gorbachev
switched to a softer approach, commending the man on his grasp
of Russian. But the worker would have none of Gorbachev's
compliments. "You don't think we know how to write in Russian?"
he challenged. "We can read and speak Russian too, while there
are lots of Russians who can't speak a word of Lithuanian."

    "How do you understand independence?" Gorbachev shot back.

    "I was born independent," came the response. "And I want to
die independent."

    Never had Gorbachev sustained such an energetic performance
-- but never had his political skills been so severely tested.
"I have never had such discussions anywhere in the Soviet
Union," he observed later. For months Gorbachev has sat back
calmly and allowed the disintegration of the Communists'
monopoly on power in Eastern Europe. Now, when one of his own
republics was demanding the same opportunity for democratic
self-rule, Gorbachev was far less relaxed about it. There could
be no pretending that Lithuania's demands to secede from the
union were an isolated appeal. If the nation is divided over
issues of language, culture, politics and religion, it is
united in its dissatisfaction with economic problems. As goes
Lithuania, so might go other republics -- thus inviting a
military crackdown and destroying perestroika. "If even the
slightest suppression occurs, or a misunderstanding, say, in
Estonia or Moldavia," Gorbachev warned, "it spills over to the
rest of the country."

    As if to drive home his point, the fires of defiance and
threatened revolution burned brightly throughout the Soviet
Union last week. From the southern Caucasus republics of
Azerbaijan and Armenia to the Baltic states in the north,
ethnic tensions flared and independence movements battled with
Communist Party officials. The most troubled spots:


    ARMENIA. Legislators amended the republic's constitution to
give the regional legislature primacy over its national
counterpart, enabling Armenia to veto national laws that
conflict with its interests. The parliament then defied the
Kremlin by voting to include in its budget the disputed
Nagorno-Karabakh region, geographically nestled in the republic
of Azerbaijan.


    AZERBAIJAN. Citizens promptly protested Armenia's actions,
blockading government offices and seizing a local radio station
in the Caspian Sea port of Lenkoran. An officer of the Interior
Ministry troops on peacekeeping duty in Nagorno-Karabakh was
killed in the village of Akhullu. Azerbaijanis wearing
bulletproof vests and carrying automatic weapons attacked
Manashid, another village in the disputed district. Farther
south, in the Nakhichevan region, where Azerbaijanis are
demanding an open frontier with their ethnic kin across the
border in Iran, angry crowds continued to tear down border
installations and destroy guard posts.


    GEORGIA. Violence flared over the release of four Ossetians
detained in connection with the fatal shooting of a
nine-month-old infant last fall. Ossetian activists are
campaigning for greater autonomy and cries persist to
"overthrow the Communist regime in the republic." In Kareli,
50 miles northwest of Tbilisi, protesters demanding independence
drove government workers out of their offices.


    LATVIA. Following the lead of Lithuania, Latvian lawmakers
amended the constitution to create a multiparty system.

    Of all the problems confronting Moscow, however, the
challenge for independence mounted by Lithuania threatened to
have the most serious consequences. Nothing less than the
territorial integrity of the Soviet Union, and possibly the
survival of its leader, seemed to be at stake. The stage was
set on Dec. 20, when Lithuania's Communist Party declared
independence from its national counterpart. At the time,
Gorbachev angrily told a group of Lithuanian parliamentarians
that they had "stabbed perestroika in the heart." But
Gorbachev knew that the party's maneuver was merely a dress
rehearsal for the day when the republic would try to secede
from the nation. In local elections on Feb. 24, Lithuanians are
expected to elect a republican parliament dominated by
uncompromising nationalists. It was a challenge that could not
be solved with traditional Kremlin politics. Stalling for time,
Gorbachev announced that there should be a "fact-finding
mission" to Lithuania.

    When Gorbachev arrived there last week for a three-day visit
-- his first in more than nine years and the first ever by a
General Secretary -- party issues were all but forgotten as the
Soviet leader plunged straight into the more dangerous debate
over secession. He came armed with his own compromise, a vague
plan that would allow for "sovereign states" within a new
federation. Then he tried every sales pitch he could think of.

    The comradely approach: "We will decide everything
together."

    The paternal pitch: "Where are you running to? Why are you
running? You must think these things through."

    The patriotic appeal: "If someone succeeds in pitting us
against each other and it comes to a clash, there will be
tragedy."

    The historical argument: "Over 50 years we have become tied
together, whether we like it or not."

    When appeals to emotion and sentiment failed, Gorbachev
tried dark warnings. On defense matters he argued, "Our
security lies here," referring to Lithuania's ports and
communications lines. He played the economic card, reminding
his listeners that secession would mean the loss of billions
of rubles in subsidies from Moscow for underpriced raw
materials, oils and products. "You'll bog down in a swamp
immediately," he taunted. Finally he threatened, "Don't look
for conflict or you'll get real trouble."

    Gorbachev did have a rabbit in his hat of tricks. He
announced that he had ordered the drafting of a law to codify
how a republic could withdraw from the Soviet Union; it was the
first time a Soviet leader has spoken positively about
secession. Gorbachev noted that while Article 72 of the 1977
constitution grants the right of secession to the country's 15
republics, a mechanism was needed to ensure an orderly
withdrawal.

    Gorbachev left it to one of his entourage, Politburo member
Yuri Maslyukov, to hint at some of the strings attached.
Maslyukov, who heads the state planning commission Gosplan,
said a move to secede would require drawing up a proposal that
detailed its implications and then putting it to a popular
vote. Said Maslyukov: "It's difficult to imagine that the
collective reason of the Lithuanian nation would decide on such
a step."

    But to many Lithuanians, Gorbachev's talk of a "sovereign
state" was little more than a tactic to buy time. The crowds
in Vilnius regard Moscow's centralized rule as a continuation
of the sorry chapter of its history that began with the
Stalin-era annexation of the three Baltic states, following the
signing of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which carved out
the spheres of influence between Hitler and Stalin. At a
gathering last week in downtown Vilnius, Vytautas Landsbergis,
leader of the Lithuanian popular-front movement Sajudis,
demanded, "What has been stolen should be given back!" Around
the plaza, flags woven of the national colors of Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania and other republics fluttered.

    Lithuania's cocky demands reflect the confidence that has
mounted over the past year as the republic's supreme soviet
passed a declaration of state sovereignty, proclaimed
Lithuania's economic autonomy and abolished the constitutional
clause guaranteeing the Communist lock on power. In turn, the
local party revamped its program and called for an independent
state. By the time the party severed its ties to its Moscow
parent last December, Lithuanians had achieved many of their
aims -- short of independence. For the first time, Gorbachev
conceded last week that he sees "no tragedy" in the creation of
a multiparty system but added that it provides "no panacea" for
the nation's ills.

    Ironically, Gorbachev has largely himself to blame for the
current crisis. By pressing his policies of perestroika and
glasnost, he emboldened Lithuanians to press their nationalist
course and thereby played Dr. Frankenstein to the monster that
now bedevils him. Lithuanians have also pointed to the
startling developments throughout the East bloc to justify
their drive for local autonomy. How, they demand, can Gorbachev
deny his own Soviet citizens what he has permitted elsewhere
in the bloc?

    The dilemma that Gorbachev confronts is how to devolve power
not only from the top downward but also from the center outward
to the republics -- without unhinging his entire reform program
or, worse still, losing territory. Should Gorbachev accede to
Lithuania's demand for secession, he knows, he will be pressed
for comparable concessions from Estonia and Latvia. And once
the secession fever infects the Baltics, the Kremlin fears,
what is to stop it from spreading to the other republics? Last
week Gorbachev's Politburo ally, Alexander Yakovlev, dubbed
this unnerving prospect "the domino effect."

    Gorbachev's chief political rival, Politburo member Yegor
Ligachev, had a darker name for it: "the beginning of the end."
That gloomy prognosis suggests that Gorbachev will meet with
staunch resistance in conservative quarters if he bows to
Lithuania. Andrei Makarov, a well-placed Moscow lawyer, says
that the conservatives are milking the messy political
situation and that Gorbachev was actually backed into going to
Lithuania when, on a suggestion from opposition leader Boris
Yeltsin, the Central Committee voted for Gorbachev to head the
delegation. In Washington, however, a top Kremlinologist
cautions that any talk of Gorbachev's political demise is
premature. As yet, he observes, no plausible successor has
emerged to take his place, and Gorbachev's opposition within
the Politburo is fragmented.

    Haunted by nightmares of blood in Tiananmen Square, Rumania
and even Tbilisi last April, when Soviet troops massacred 19
protesters, Moscow is reluctant to use force to maintain
control in the republics. It is also possible to contemplate
the three Baltic states seceding without the entire union
unraveling. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are relatively recent
additions to the union. Furthermore, unlike many of the other
republics, the Baltics were independent at the time of their
incorporation. There is, therefore, a historical basis for
treating them as a special case. Perhaps the Kremlin aims to do
just that. Last week Soviet government spokesman Gennadi
Gerasimov went so far as to speak of establishing a "mechanism
for divorce" to deal with the Lithuanian situation.

    In the Baltic republics, secessionist passion is inversely
proportional to the percentage of ethnic Russians living there.
Lithuania has the smallest Russian population; hence Gorbachev
received the region's most emotional dose of separatism.
Nonetheless, there was something exhilarating about seeing the
leader of the Soviet Union debating citizens in the streets.
Thomas Jefferson could not have asked for a better illustration
of democracy in action, though Gorbachev may have wished for
an experience a shade less vivid.

    For now, Gorbachev hopes to appease Lithuanians with pledges
to help them achieve independence within a federation, while
soothing conservatives with promises that any formula for
secession will be worked out in Moscow. There is still room for
compromise; while all parties to the conflict bandy words like
"self-determination," "federation" and "sovereignty," few have
attempted to nail down their precise meanings.

    Last week Gorbachev insisted that if the issue is ever put
to a vote, Lithuanians will ultimately reject secession in
favor of his own federation plan. Although Gorbachev did not
back up that prediction with a wager, he has bet his prestige
on the outcome.



____________________________________________________________ THE
SOVIET UNION'S UNRULY REPUBLICS


LITHUANIA

    Of the three Baltic republics, Lithuania has gone the
furthest in pushing for independence. Its Communist Party has
broken with Moscow headquarters, and pressure is growing for
the republic to secede from the Soviet Union. Gorbachev has
conceded that secession is possible if a referendum shows wide
support for it.


LATVIA

    Latvia is the second republic to legalize noncommunist
parties, and 75% of its delegates to the Soviet Congress of
People's Deputies are from the Popular Front. The Front's
program declares that it is working for an independent Latvia.
Last November 600,000 people, nearly half the native Latvian
population, attended a ceremony in Riga calling for
self-determination.


ESTONIA

    Though the Communist Party's leading role has not yet been
abolished in Estonia, polls show that Popular Front candidates
would easily defeat the communists in free elections. The
Front's platform describes Estonia as an occupied country and
demands a referendum on independence. Estonia plans to
introduce its own convertible currency by 1991.


GEORGIA

    Last April, 19 people were killed when KGB and army troops
violently suppressed a peaceful protest against Soviet
infringements of Georgia's sovereignty. This exacerbated
long-smoldering anti-Russian resentment, and popular demands
for independence have since gathered momentum. Last week
strikes halted transportation in Tbilisi.


MOLDAVIA

    Two-thirds of the inhabitants are Rumanian, as a result of
Stalin's annexation of Bessarabia in 1940, and the Moldavian
language is virtually identical to Rumanian. With Ceausescu
dead, there is renewed interest in the possible return of
Bessarabia to Rumania. A high-level Moldavian delegation is
going to Rumania to talk to the new leadership.


AZERBAIJAN

    Azerbaijanis share a religion -- Shi`ite Muslim -- and a
language with Iranians across their southern border. Briefly
independent following the Bolshevik Revolution, the area was
reconquered by the Red Army in 1920. Last New Year's Eve,
nationalists tore down border barriers on the Soviet side,
demanding freedom to mingle with their Shi`ite Iranian kin.